Well, we're winding down, exactly halfway through the season, and I thought it might be nice to go ahead and lay out many of the possible explanations for the monster. I wonder if, say, back around this time in season two, we were foolish enough to be thinking we'd know what the monster is by now. "Oh yeah, dude, they'll totally explain that soon. It's not like I'm gonna wait four more years just to find out about a cloud of black smoke, right?"
AAAANNNNGGGHHH! Sorry, Hans, wrong guess!
Anyway, here are the best ways to sum up the most likely scenarios:
GHOST/DEMON
The monster is some type of malevolent being from another world, whether you want to call it an evil spirit, demon or possibly even the Devil himself. Given all of the discussion in the most recent episode about the black smoke being a force of darkness that needs to be contained on the island, plus all of the references to Hell, this explanation seems more relevant now than ever. We've seen a lot this season that revolves around the concept of magic--everything from lighthouses with magic mirrors, to discussions with the dead, to granting immortality with the mere touch of a hand--so much so that this no longer seems particularly far-fetched or even implausible. This also adds to the idea of how the circles of ash will repel the monster; in magic, when dealing with concepts such as summoning demons, circles of protection are important (and elements such as salt or ash are often used). LOST is taking on a scope of apocalyptic proportions that seem downright biblical, so this certainly explains a lot. What it doesn’t explain are the flashes of electrical energy within the smoke, why it makes a combination of biological and mechanical noises when it moves, and what any of this has to do with electromagnetism.
ALIEN/EXTRATERRESTRIAL TECHNOLOGY
Another possibility is that the black smoke is a creature from another world, or possibly some type of probe left behind by an alien race to collect information and study the island. This would explain its seemingly otherworldly nature (without being as overtly supernatural/mystical as a ghost or demon), not to mention the biomechanical noises the smoke seems to make. Also, LOST has made something of a habit of referencing other media that involves aliens—Solaris, Roadside Picnic, VALIS, The X-Files, the UMMO symbols—and the recently released “Mysteries of the Universe” special which explained the DHARMA Initiative made many references to extraterrestrial phenomena, as well. Aliens are as good a reason for the weirdness of the island as anything else I've heard, and besides I think we all know how much I love pretty much anything with aliens in it. Maybe the smoke monster just needs to phone home.
ROBOT/ANCIENT EGYPTIAN MACHINE
If one were to ditch the extraterrestrial hypothesis but still keep the black smoke as some sort of artificial creation, there remains the possibility that it could be either a futuristic form of technology that exists on the island via time travel, or that it was built by the ancient Egyptians to guard the island. Either theory sets up the monster as being a security system, which fits with how it’s been described on numerous occasions. These ideas dovetail with the idea of the electromagnetism as well, since the electromagnetic anomaly would have a hand in sustaining the existence of this type of technology. I've always been a big fan of out-of-control technology stories, as well as the idea of ancient machines which have forgotten their origins (see Star Trek: The Motion Picture for a good example, or even the machines in Stephen King's DARK TOWER series, a major inspiration for LOST). Whether ancient or futuristic, the idea of the smoke being a form of technology fits with a lot of what we’ve seen, and would be an appropriately Philip K. Dick-style twist.
THE MAN IN BLACK
However, unfortunately none of these explanations account for the Man in Black. It’s been established that he is either the smoke monster or at least uses the black smoke as a means of existence. He also insists that he was once a man. If such is the case, is he really the origin of the smoke? And if so, how? The smoke may have existed independently before him; if that is the case, it’s likely he has become one with the smoke’s properties. This would indicate that perhaps he was human at one point in time, and was even the keeper of the black smoke, but perhaps upon the destruction of his physical body he was forced to use the smoke to reincarnate. And if he is actually the origin point of the smoke and it does not predate him, it’s possible that he was transformed by the electromagnetic anomaly into a new type of being, one that could not be permitted to leave the island under any circumstances. Think Dr. Manhattan's transformation in WATCHMEN, but instead of being a blue quasi-god he's a black cloud of quasi-demon. The mechanical noises we hear are because he's magnetically tethered to something under the ground, like an invisible leash.
SECONDHAND SMOKE
It’s also a possibility that the monster is really secondhand smoke that was left behind by the Cigarette-Smoking Man, and was subsequently brought to life by the electromagnetic anomaly. “This blatant anti-smoking propaganda is typical of leftist liberal Hollywood writers, but I wouldn’t discount it.” – Glenn Beck
GLENN BECK
On that note, I'm also not opposed to the smoke monster being Glenn Beck.
SNOOKI
I think we can all agree, this is the most likely explanation.
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